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Argument An expert’s point of view on a current event. Israel Isn’t Serious About the Gaza Cease-Fire. Nor Is Trump. All indications suggest that Netanyahu plans to return to war—and Washington is unlikely to stand in his way. By H.A. Hellyer , a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress. A youth performs a trick on a skateboard under a banner congratulating U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on winning the U.S. presidential election, in Jerusalem on Nov. 7, 2024. A youth performs a trick on a skateboard under a banner congratulating U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on winning the U.S. presidential election, in Jerusalem on Nov. 7, 2024. Ahmad Gharabli / AFP FP Live: What does the global polarization over the Israel-Hamas war and its causes say about our political discourse? Pankaj Mishra joins FP Live to discuss. Register here . January 23, 2025, 11:27 AM Comment icon View Comments ( 3 ) On Jan. 19, the first phase of the Israel-Hamas cease-fire agreement began. After 15 months, Israel’s war in Gaza is, presumably, on pause. It’s all thanks to a deal that was reportedly on the table since December 2023, but was finally signed last week after Donald Trump intervened, just before his inauguration. The question is: Is this really a cease-fire, or is it simply a truce that will fall apart in the next few weeks? Trump’s Second Term Ongoing reports and analysis A cease-fire is usually envisaged to be permanent, with the clear and stated intention of not returning to hostilities. A truce is quite the opposite. On Jan. 19, the first phase of the Israel-Hamas cease-fire agreement began. After 15 months, Israel’s war in Gaza is, presumably, on pause. It’s all thanks to a deal that was reportedly on the table since December 2023, but was finally signed last week after Donald Trump intervened, just before his inauguration. The question is: Is this really a cease-fire, or is it simply a truce that will fall apart in the next few weeks? Trending Articles Congolese President Skips Crisis Meeting With Rwanda The emergency regional leaders’ summit aimed to address ongoing fighting between Rwandan-backed rebels and Congolese… Powered By Advertisement Congolese President Skips Crisis Meeting With Rwanda X Trump’s Second Term Ongoing reports and analysis A cease-fire is usually envisaged to be permanent, with the clear and stated intention of not returning to hostilities. A truce is quite the opposite. For Hamas, the situation is rather simple; the organization needs a cease-fire, and it has declared its intention to abide by all three phases of the deal. The prospects for Hamas as an organization with a cease-fire are still quite precarious, but the options without a cease-fire are even worse. Hamas is completely cut off from the outside world, and reports suggest that the people of Gaza resent it, considering the tremendous crisis the Gaza Strip was plunged into as a direct response to Hamas’s attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. For Israel, the situation is quite different. There is no withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) specified for the agreement’s first phase; and even if every IDF soldier were to leave Gaza, Israel would continue to be the occupying power there, as the International Court of Justice has specified . But the question here is about the intention to stop fighting; and here, there are clear signs to the contrary. Trump expressed a severe lack of confidence that the truce will hold just hours into his presidency, and key Trump officials, such as his national security advisor and defense secretary, have voiced support for Israeli objectives that, by definition, would negate the cease-fire altogether. The public declarations from various Israeli ministers have been quite clear over the last few days. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, for example, has declared he and his party will remain in Israel’s government because of the guarantees they claim to have received from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the war in Gaza will continue. Indeed, Smotrich has asserted that Israel intends to “take over Gaza, making it uninhabitable [for Palestinians],” that the “constraints imposed by the Biden administration will be removed,” and that “Gaza is destroyed and uninhabitable and will remain so.” Smotrich clearly believes that the deal’s second phase, let alone its third phase (when rebuilding of Gaza is meant to take place) will never happen. It was this supposed commitment from Netanyahu that, according to Smotrich, kept him from leaving the government. As far as Smotrich is concerned, the complete destruction of Hamas in Gaza is a necessary war goal , and that has not been achieved. As for the prime minister himself, Netanyahu has spoken directly to both the Israeli and Western press, making it clear that the cease-fire is “temporary” and that Israel has “full backing” to resume the war in Gaza with “tremendous force.” Moreover, Netanyahu has already started to violate the deal. Several Palestinians were killed on Jan. 20 , after the cease-fire began. One element of the deal noted in various leaks was the redeployment of Israeli troops from the Philadelphi Corridor along the border with Egypt during the first phase, relocating them to elsewhere in the Gaza Strip. However, Netanyahu confirmed the night before the deal began that Israel would not reduce its forces in the Philadelphi Corridor and it would instead increase the IDF presence there—a violation not only of this proposed framework, but of the Camp David Accords with Egypt. Netanyahu is clearly trying to navigate between satisfying the Trump administration’s desire to show that a deal has been struck and his own calculations about why the war has to continue. Read More Joe Biden speaks into a microphone and gestures with his index finger as he stands at a podium decorated with the official seal of the United States. Standing on either side of him and slightly behind are Kamala Harris and Antony Blinken. All wear suits. Qatar and U.S. Announce Gaza Cease-Fire and Hostage Deal The Israeli leader has yet to comment on the deal, which would free 33 hostages and surge aid into Gaza. Report | John Haltiwanger , Amy Mackinnon Two people are silhoutted with their hands to their faces as they look over a hazy horizon toward smoke rising over Gaza. One Question Looming Over Israel-Hamas Truce Deal—Why Now? Biden has been pushing for an agreement for more than a year. Analysis | Daniel Byman As Israeli newspaper Haaretz put it, the comments of former National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who resigned after the Israeli cabinet approved the cease-fire, confirmed “the suspicion that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been delaying the return of the hostages—even at the cost of their lives—and is drawing out the war based on personal interest: his political survival.” Indeed, Netanyahu’s own chief of staff wrote on Wednesday that the deal “includes the option to resume the fighting at the end of phase 1 if the negotiations over phase 2 don’t develop in a manner that promises the fulfillment of the war’s goals: military and civil annihilation of Hamas and a release of all hostages.” Sign up for Editors’ Picks A curated selection of FP’s must-read stories. Sign Up By submitting your email, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to receive email correspondence from us. You may opt out at any time. Enter your email Sign Up ✓ Signed Up You’re on the list! More ways to stay updated on global news: FP Live Enter your email Sign Up ✓ Signed Up World Brief Enter your email Sign Up ✓ Signed Up China Brief Enter your email Sign Up ✓ Signed Up South Asia Brief Enter your email Sign Up ✓ Signed Up Situation Report Enter your email Sign Up ✓ Signed Up View All Newsletters The Israeli media has also reported Netanyahu told his cabinet ministers that he has a letter from former U.S. President Joe Biden and a transcript from Trump guaranteeing Israel’s right to return to war after the agreement’s first phase, or if Hamas violates the agreement. Israel Hayom , a pro-Netanyahu outlet, noted much the same about Trump and Biden, reporting that Netanyahu would not have signed the agreement if he had not received such guarantees. The Trump administration has not given much reason to be enthusiastic either. Netanyahu claims Trump “emphasized” that the cease-fire was temporary and that Trump has decided to “lift all the remaining restrictions” on U.S. munitions. When asked if the war was over, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said , “Hamas has to be destroyed to the point that it cannot reconstitute.” Trump’s nominee for secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth, has said he supports Israel killing “every last member of Hamas.” This does not send the message that Israel will receive pressure from the United States to ensure a full completion of the cease-fire agreement. Indeed, another Trump official argued that as part of the agreement, Palestinians could be relocated to Indonesia while rebuilding takes place—something that would probably be a nonstarter altogether. Trump himself, in a comment given shortly after his inauguration on Jan. 20, said he was “not confident” that the cease-fire would hold and that it was “not our war, it’s their war.” The war on Gaza is part and parcel of a much wider conflict, of which the occupation of East Jerusalem and the West Bank is an integral part. There, prospects continue to be bleak. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced on Jan. 17 that he was canceling administrative detentions of Jewish settlers currently in Israeli custody—for allegedly committing and planning terror attacks against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank. An Israeli official said Katz’s decision was for domestic political considerations. The likelihood for increased turmoil in the West Bank, likewise, is all but certain, and it’s rather clear that the Trump administration backs Israel’s moves that will precipitate that. Most recently, Trump’s nominee for United Nations ambassador, Elise Stefanik, declared that she agreed with the view that “Israel has a biblical right to the entire West Bank.” As it stands, this isn’t a deal or an agreement—it is an “outline” or a “framework”, as Netanyahu’s office reportedly instructed his own cabinet members to refer to it. It only becomes a genuine agreement, and cease-fire, if the United States utilizes its tremendous pressure and leverage on Israel to make it actually uphold the terms. Unfortunately, there are few signs that the Trump administration will do so. Instead, there is potential for increased instability, especially if the possibility of a Palestinian state is permanently excluded, Israeli annexation of territories in the West Bank is implemented, and renewed Israeli settlements are erected in Gaza. Any of these developments would have serious consequences for the region at large. Trump said he expects the Abraham Accords to be expanded with Saudi Arabia as the next Arab state to normalize relations with Israel. But Saudi Arabia’s government has made it clear that Riyadh has different prerequisites for normalization. Its leaders have insisted on the establishment of a Palestinian state before normalization of ties—a stance that is rooted in the decades-old Arab Peace Initiative. If Trump really wants to see full normalization of Israel in the region, the lasting success of this cease-fire is an essential first step. This post is part of FP’s ongoing coverage of the Trump administration . Follow along here . My FP: Follow topics and authors to get straight to what you like. Exclusively for FP subscribers. Subscribe Now | Log In Foreign & Public Diplomacy United States H.A. Hellyer is a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress. Among other books, he is the author of Muslims of Europe: The ‘Other’ Europeans . X: @hahellyer Read More On Foreign & Public Diplomacy | Gaza | Israel | United States | War Join the Conversation Commenting on this and other recent articles is just one benefit of a Foreign Policy subscription. Already a subscriber? Log In . Subscribe Subscribe View 3 Comments Join the Conversation Join the conversation on this and other recent Foreign Policy articles when you subscribe now. Subscribe Subscribe Not your account? Log out View 3 Comments Join the Conversation Please follow our comment guidelines , stay on topic, and be civil, courteous, and respectful of others’ beliefs. You are commenting as . Change your username | Log out Change your username: Username I agree to abide by FP’s comment guidelines . (Required) Confirm CANCEL Confirm your username to get started. The default username below has been generated using the first name and last initial on your FP subscriber account. 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