Mexico Tariffs Put Guacamole on the Chopping Block

[IMPORTANT: Make this 4 times longer with much more detail]

Analysis Mexico Tariffs Put Guacamole on the Chopping Block How will America’s favorite cuisine fare in Trump’s cartel fight? By Kitty Greenwald , a freelance reporter and contributor to the Wall Street Journal . A detail image of a chef using a large knife to remove the pit of a sliced avocado. Jorge Granada prepares guacamole at a Mexican restaurant in San Francisco on Feb. 9, 2022. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images My FP: Follow topics and authors to get straight to what you like. Exclusively for FP subscribers. Subscribe Now | Log In United States March 3, 2025, 11:13 AM Comment icon View Comments ( 0 ) Since U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 25 percent tariff on all Mexican imports—a directive he then paused for 30 days—many in the Mexican food business in the United States have been holding their breath. On Tuesday, when the tariff is set to take effect, restaurateurs, importers, and distributors will finally see what the future of their industry looks like. Independent chefs across the country—the only restaurateurs willing to speak with me for this story—are anxious and have been hatching contingency plans. Trump’s Second Term Ongoing reports and analysis If tariffs actually jump 25 percent, there would be an almost immediate increase in related grocery prices, said Gary Hufbauer , a senior economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE). Historically, he said, when tariffs go up, related costs go up “in step with the tariffs.” Mexico is America’s largest trading partner and, according to PIIE, its vegetables and prepared foods account for the sixth and seventh largest (by value) Mexican imports. Plus, Mexican crops like avocados have become hugely popular in the United States: In 2021, the average American consumed nine pounds of avocados a year—three times more than in the early 2000s . Since U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 25 percent tariff on all Mexican imports—a directive he then paused for 30 days—many in the Mexican food business in the United States have been holding their breath. On Tuesday, when the tariff is set to take effect, restaurateurs, importers, and distributors will finally see what the future of their industry looks like. Independent chefs across the country—the only restaurateurs willing to speak with me for this story—are anxious and have been hatching contingency plans. Trending Articles Why Isn’t China Playing Trump’s Game? Beijing has opted for defiance instead of flattery. Will the strategy backfire? Powered By Advertisement Why Isn’t China Playing Trump’s Game? X Trump’s Second Term Ongoing reports and analysis If tariffs actually jump 25 percent, there would be an almost immediate increase in related grocery prices, said Gary Hufbauer , a senior economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE). Historically, he said, when tariffs go up, related costs go up “in step with the tariffs.” Mexico is America’s largest trading partner and, according to PIIE, its vegetables and prepared foods account for the sixth and seventh largest (by value) Mexican imports. Plus, Mexican crops like avocados have become hugely popular in the United States: In 2021, the average American consumed nine pounds of avocados a year—three times more than in the early 2000s . As for Mexican restaurants, the toll would be severe, Hufbauer added. According to the Pew Research Center , about one in 10 U.S. restaurants serves Mexican food. And, he explained, consumers associate tacos and enchiladas with lower price points. He expects the Mexican food market to contract if costs increase, because lower income consumers will be priced out. That prospect worries chef Hugo Ortega, a restaurateur with multiple Mexican restaurants in Houston. If the proposed tariffs kick in, Ortega said, “I can’t start charging over $20 for a scoop of guacamole!” Trump’s stated reasons for the tariffs pertain to security concerns at the border and combating Mexico’s powerful drug cartels. Fentanyl, which has been trafficked into the United States via Mexico for well over a decade, has made narcotics sold in the United States especially lethal. “Fentanyl-related overdose deaths started rising in 2012,” Dr. Jeffrey A. Singer, a senior fellow in health policy studies at the CATO Institute, said while testifying before Congress in 2023 . “By 2017, fentanyl was found in more than 50 percent of opioid-related overdose deaths, and by 2022, as we know, it was involved in roughly 90 percent.” According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), fentanyl-linked deaths nearly tripled between 2016 to 2022. A 2020 Drug Enforcement Administration report said that “Mexico and China are the primary source countries for fentanyl and fentanyl-related substances,” and in recent years, it’s become “widely accepted that drug cartels in Mexico produce the vast majority of street fentanyl flowing into the U.S.,” National Public Radio reported earlier this year . But the influence of Mexican cartels goes beyond the drug trade. Agricultural exports—including those relied on by American consumers, like avocados and limes—provide the cartels with significant revenue. Cartels muscled their way into the avocado business, especially in the state of Michoacán, decades ago and now they extort everyone along the supply chain from farmers to packers and truckers . As NPR explained in 2022, these workers must pay cartels a “war tax.” Adding to the troubles, late last year, emboldened cartel members assaulted and temporarily detained two USDA inspectors surveying avocado orchards. It was not the first time cartels intimidated USDA inspectors, but after the 2024 incident, USDA field inspections were handed over to Mexican authorities. In 2019, the risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft warned that Mexican avocados were becoming a “conflict commodity,” similar to “blood diamonds.” The cartels’ involvement, it said, worsens problems related to violence, forced labor, child labor, and illegal deforestation. Cartels’ agricultural interests are not limited to avocados, either; they’re deeply invested in the lime business in Mexico, which is the world’s second-largest producer. (The United States is, again, the chief consumer, importing over 80 percent of its limes from Mexico.) As Falko Ernst, who was at the time a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, told the Guardian in 2019, “Mexican organised crime has long mutated away from ‘just’ drugs trafficking. Today, the model is this: you control a given territory, and within it you exploit whichever commodity” is available. These include avocados and limes but also other fruit such as mangoes, strawberries and papaya. At present Mexico, provides America with about 90 percent of its Hass avocados—the dark green variety consumers favor—and over 80 percent of all avocados , according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture . Not only is Mexico the world’s top producer, but in the past decade, production has increased 75 percent, making avocados its fourth-most valuable food export, behind beer, tequila, and berries. Read More Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum speaks during her daily press conference at the National Palace in Mexico City on Feb. 3. Trump’s Brinkmanship Is Changing Mexico Claudia Sheinbaum emerged victorious from the week’s tariff tussle, but her assumptions about the United States are shaken. Latin America Brief | Catherine Osborn An illustration shows Donald Trump waving with his tie flying over his shoulder atop a swinging blue cargo container. Four other multi-colored containers at left hand slightly higher. Trump Has the Whole Global Trade System in His Sights The U.S. president’s ambitions for “reciprocity” aren’t limited to China. Analysis | Bob Davis An illustration shows a circular fortress made of shipping containers surrounding a U.S. flag on a pole. What Makes Trump’s Tariffs Different This Time Around? A guide to the history and future of U.S. protectionism. Flash Points | Chloe Hadavas Chicago-based chef Rick Bayless said that if prices go up, he’ll have to continue sourcing some staple ingredients—avocados, limes, and tomatillos—from Mexico because there isn’t a viable alternative: No one else has the climate, no one else produces the quantities, and, in terms of avocados, no other source has the proximity (important because they bruise easily). Ken Melban of the California Avocado Commission confirmed that avocado growing in the United States has its limitations. Even if California plants more avocado trees, which is not in the cards, it takes at least three years to produce fruit. Plus, California doesn’t grow year-round , which Mexico does. Bayless said his Mexican jarred food line, Frontera, is mostly produced in Mexico and the business is his biggest revenue generator. But if tariffs spike, many of his products won’t survive because they won’t be able to compete in a crowded market. As for his five restaurants and seven franchises, “We have a shipment of avocados coming in now and we’re hearing of slowdowns at the border, but we planned three weeks out so I think we’ll be fine.” Is he nervous? “If we need, we’ll cut dishes that don’t generate enough money and work less expensive ingredients into higher priced ones,” he said. What about margaritas? Well, he said, they’ll just become price prohibitive because limes and tequila will be so expensive. For the time being, Happy Avocado, a produce distributor in Houston, said, “We’re in a wait and see period.” Independent chefs don’t have that luxury. To get ahead of the tariff, Ortega said he’s already switched providers and now most of his ingredients come from a large buyer with access to Californian, Floridian and Mexican farms. His restaurants are now using smaller avocadoes which require more labor to get the same yield. Plus, he—and other independent restaurateurs—recently contended with COVID-19. “I love my work,” Ortega said, “but feel like there is always a foot on my neck.” Sign up for Editors’ Picks A curated selection of FP’s must-read stories. Sign Up By submitting your email, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to receive email correspondence from us. You may opt out at any time. Enter your email Sign Up ✓ Signed Up You’re on the list! More ways to stay updated on global news: FP Live Enter your email Sign Up ✓ Signed Up World Brief Enter your email Sign Up ✓ Signed Up China Brief Enter your email Sign Up ✓ Signed Up South Asia Brief Enter your email Sign Up ✓ Signed Up Situation Report Enter your email Sign Up ✓ Signed Up View All Newsletters According to the CDC, fentanyl-related fatalities were already declining before Trump took office: Between July 2023 and July 2024, overdose deaths fell 17 percent . That progress is in part due to the Biden administration’s cooperation with Mexico , which has historically been a U.S. ally. Just yesterday, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick gave the administration’s first official indication that the tariffs may not end up quite so high, after all. “There are going to be tariffs on Tuesday,” he said. “Exactly what they are, we’re going to leave that for the president and his team to negotiate.” Lutnick did however acknowledge recent progress, saying Mexico has “done a reasonable job” securing the border. But will Trump’s rhetoric and tone, which are decidedly more adversarial, make that progress go further and faster? He’s already claiming success , due to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s dispatching of 10,000 extra troops to the border last month as part of an agreement with Trump to pause the tariff rollout. (In exchange, the United States committed to curbing the volume of high-caliber weapons trafficked into Mexico to combat the cartels’ fire power.) There’s been progress on the fentanyl front as well, with the Mexican government increasing pressure domestically. If Trump actually goes through with imposing the steep tariffs on Mexican imports tomorrow, he’ll be making good on a proposition he made during his first administration. In 2019, he proposed tariff s amounting to 25 per cent on Mexican imports, but didn’t go through with the plan—giving U.S. consumers six additional years of (relatively) cheap avocados. This post is part of FP’s ongoing coverage of the Trump administration . Follow along here . My FP: Follow topics and authors to get straight to what you like. Exclusively for FP subscribers. Subscribe Now | Log In United States Kitty Greenwald is a freelance reporter and contributor to the Wall Street Journal . Read More On Donald Trump | Mexico | Trade Policy & Agreements | United States Join the Conversation Commenting on this and other recent articles is just one benefit of a Foreign Policy subscription. Already a subscriber? Log In . Subscribe Subscribe View 0 Comments Join the Conversation Join the conversation on this and other recent Foreign Policy articles when you subscribe now. Subscribe Subscribe Not your account? Log out View 0 Comments Join the Conversation Please follow our comment guidelines , stay on topic, and be civil, courteous, and respectful of others’ beliefs. You are commenting as . Change your username | Log out Change your username: Username I agree to abide by FP’s comment guidelines . (Required) Confirm CANCEL Confirm your username to get started. The default username below has been generated using the first name and last initial on your FP subscriber account. Usernames may be updated at any time and must not contain inappropriate or offensive language. Username I agree to abide by FP’s comment guidelines . (Required) Confirm